Skip to main content

Rumored Said ~140k BTC Of Mt.Gox Will Be Smashed On March 10; Yuga Labs' Bitcoin NFT Auction More Than $16MM

Bitcoin retreated slightly overnight. It is still fluctuating sideways at the 22.2-22.4k line.

Sideways, reflecting the hesitation of the market. On Sunday (5th) at Liu Jiaolian(twitter: @liujiaolian)’s planet member VIP gathering, I talked about several major judgments:

20230307-01 Figure: Liu Jiaolian's planet (simplified picture)

First, according to $30,000 as the dividing line of the bear market, it is still a bear market. The bear market is a period of building positions, and the "Ba Zi Jue"(Eight words) should be adhered to. Second, the bear market has more bad news, and the bull market has more good news. Prices drive sentiment, and sentiment filters news. Rather than the other way around. Third, in the short term, Binance has been questioned, Mt.Gox (Mentougou) compensation (From March 10 till the second half of the year), FOMC March meeting (late March), Ethereum Shanghai upgrade pledge unlock (end of March or postponed till April) and a series of FUD or uncertain pressure. Discounted coins are nothing else than opportunities.

Mt.Gox is the earliest bitcoin exchange. The incident of theft surrounding it has also been argued for many years. Almost every year, it is necessary to take it out to intimidate the market. Because it is said that nearly 140,000 bitcoins recovered should be compensated to users whose assets were jeopardized that year.

The legal process is slow. When the bull market was in 2021, it was estimated that Mt. Gox compensation might become the lead to end the bull market. It now appears that the situation is better than originally expected.

why?

It is better to sell at a low point than to sell at a high point.

Assuming compensation at $60,000, and assuming that everyone gets the spot and sells it immediately, $60,000 multiplied by 140,000 equals $8.4 billion. Today, the price in the bear market has dropped, multiplying 22,000 knives by 140,000 BTC, which is only 3.08 billion US dollars.

In other words, the burden of the purchasing power of the market has been reduced by 60%.

You know, the liquidity of Bitcoin today is not comparable to that of the past. Even in this bear market with rapidly cooling liquidity, the 24-hour trading volume of Bitcoin is as high as 770,000 BTC, or about 17.35 billion U.S. dollars.

Had all 3.08 billion been thrown out, which would be only 17.7% of 17.35 billion.

There will definitely be a shock, but it will definitely not be as exaggerated as some bluffing bear bluffs.

What's more, firstly, not everyone can get BTC, and some people get legal currency (Japanese yen); secondly, those who get BTC may not be willing to sell, at least not at the low point of this obvious bear market to sell (for example, Adam Back is also on the compensation list, do you think he will sell?); thirdly, many debts have been bought out, and the institutions that acquire debts will not smash the market.

Independent thinking. Don't follow others' advice.

The auction of TwelveFold, the first Bitcoin inscription NFT work produced by Yuga Labs mentioned in yesterday's article, has ended. The top 288 bidders win.

The current floor price is 2.2501 BTC. (twelvefold.io)

20230307-02 Figure: TwelveFold's auction floor price

Multiplied by 22k, 2.25 BTC is equivalent to nearly 50,000 US dollars!

This price reminds me that the price of Cryptopunks in early 2021 is about 50,000 US dollars. Today, in this crypto bear market, the cheapest Punk costs nearly 70 ETH, or about $100,000. (larvalabs.com/cryptopunks)

It is really remarkable that TwelveFold can shoot so high.

I simply do some math on the auction data:

  • Total number of bids: 288
  • Highest bid: 7.1159 BTC about $156,000
  • Minimum bid: 2.2501 BTC about $50,000
  • Average bid: 2.55456459 BTC about $56,000
  • Median bid: 2.4325 BTC about $53,500
  • Total income: 735.71460259 BTC about 16.2 million USD

Although the auction website and the bidding method (direct token deposit, manual refund) are somewhat rough, it is still hard to hide the enthusiasm for bidding.

24 hours. $16.2 million.

After all, this is Yuga Labs.

After all, this is the first Bitcoin NFT work produced by Yuga Labs.

Extra: The full book of "History of Bitcoin" has been released on leanpub https://leanpub.com/history-of-bitcoin

(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is a very high-risk product, and there is a risk of zeroing at any time. Please participate carefully and be responsible for yourself.)