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Bazijue, yyds

Less than three months have passed in 2023, but many things have quietly changed dramatically. The Federal Reserve of the strong eagle is about to lower its proud head. Bitcoin (BTC) has pulled out a foot from the quagmire of 16-17k at the end of last year, and is waiting at a high of 28k today and tomorrow for the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting to blow the horn of charge.

If calculated on the basis of the lowest 15.5k (point A) of BTC on November 12, 2022, the current 28k is +80.6%; If the 2023-2025 industry prospect is calculated on December 6, 2022 in the VIP group of planetary members, BTC is 17k (point B), and the current 28k is +64.7%; If calculated based on the 16.6k (point C) of the new year’s opening BTC on January 1, 2023, the current 28k is +68.6%.

If calculated based on the historical highest point of 69k (point D) on November 10, 2021, the current 28k is -59.4%; If calculated on the basis of 48k (point E) at the beginning of the bear market year on January 1, 2022, the current 28k is -41.7%; If calculated on the basis of 28.8k (point F) at the beginning of the bull market on January 1, 2021, the current 28k is -0.03%.

Why take the trouble to review these numbers?

If you have 5 million, you choose to all-in. So at which point you all-in, your fate will be completely different.

Among so many points, how high is the probability that the precision all-in hits point A? The probability of one in 10,000 (one out of every 10,000 people can accurately all-in) is not necessarily possible.

Let's assume the probability is one over 100,000.

Good. This is just a buying point.

A complete wave contains at least two points: the buying point and the selling point.

The probability of accurately escaping from the top and selling at the local highest point is only lower than the probability of accurately buying the bottom at point A in the all-in.

This probability is overestimated to be one over 100,000.

Then, the success probability of a successful wave operation can be easily calculated according to mathematics. One over 100,000 times one over 100,000 equals one over 10 billion.

The total population of the whole earth is more than 7 billion but less than 8 billion. Even if people from all over the world come to speculate, there will be less than one person who can accurately complete a wave.

What's more, want to do more waves, and succeed every time?

What's more, the total number of people participating in this market currently does not exceed 100 million people, right? How can it be you to make a success?

The difficulty of successfully doing a good job in a wave is even higher than that of winning the 5 million lottery.

Some people say that you can't judge the trend accurately every time! Certainly. Even gods can't. If you don’t believe me, go to any temple, worship any Bodhisattva, and ask her if she can tell you the trend?

The focus is on operation and strategy.

All members of Jiaolian Planet know that the strategy of Jiaolian is very simple, which is the "Bazijue": adhere to fixed investment, and increase positions when there is a fall. Invest into what? BTC.

Someone calculated that if you enter the market from the highest point in history in 2021 and insist on buying the same amount of funds every day, the average cost of adding positions is about 25.7k, which is +8.9% profit compared to the current 28k.

The author insists on disclosing his real market operations every day in the planet's "Jiaolian internal reference". A little regression statistics:

If the operations from 2022 to the present are averaged, the cost of adding positions is about 25244, which is +10.9% profit compared to the current 28k; If the operations from 2021 to the present are averaged, the cost of adding positions is about 32946, which is -15% loss compared to the current 28k.

It can be seen that if you enter the market from the highest point of the so-called bull market (the worst timing), but insist on operating in accordance with the "Bazijue" strategy of Jiaolian, you have already turned losses into profits and achieved good returns.

On the contrary, if you rush into the market in the early stage of the bull market and consume a lot of funds at a higher position during the entire bull market, you may still be in a state of slight losses at present.

The author's firm strategy is basically the most common operation, and there is no skill at all. And it’s not doing well. At the high level in 2021, there are plenty of funds to increase positions, and the investment volume is often doubled; but at the low level in 2022, due to the tight cash flow, the amount of funds is conservative. That is, it doesn't even do "equal input" very well. This resulted in a slight loss in the 2-year window.

If you can better adhere to the discipline, and even increase the intensity of "increasing positions on dips" when there is a sharp drop, there should be a high possibility that you can do a lot better than the author.

Therefore, as Jiaolian said in the community, I will just be the benchmark for everyone to be at the bottom, and hope that everyone can surpass my level.

Finally, if I calculate the average cost of the author's full-time position, it is about 14.7k, which is +90% compared with the current 28k profit. CAGR is about 13.7%.

I hope readers will use me as a stepping stone.

The author is still satisfied with the result that such a rate of return can be obtained when holding a position with considerable size and crossing the bull-bear market. (Satisfied and happy!) What is even more pleasing is that this result is also a practical verification of the author's full practice of the investment philosophy adhered to in all articles. This investment philosophy is: buy BTC with Bazijue and hold it for a long time. The author has never sold a satoshi on the secondary market since the first satoshi.

As a reference, the CAGR of Warren Buffett's investment in the past 30 years (1993-2003) is about 9.21% (13.51% standard deviation). During the same period, the CAGR of US stocks was about 9.64% (15.38% standard deviation). 1

It can be seen that a person's destiny must of course depend on self-struggle, but the historical process must also be considered.

Bazijue, yyds! Bitcoin, yyds!

References:

Commens:

  • yyds is a net-word meaning "always be my Godness".

Extra: The full book of "History of Bitcoin" has been released on leanpub https://leanpub.com/history-of-bitcoin , and opensea https://opensea.io/assets/ethereum/0x495f947276749ce646f68ac8c248420045cb7b5e/105485037225361479373965289160919783096944397316814880893051094763402285810664

nostr: npub1dlwqsauewd56dekrnuxh8xukvg7pgeelwp39qah8ts5x28tmf7pqp5tcp3 twitter: https://twitter.com/liujiaolian discord: https://discord.gg/9pGpRgUYPp substack: https://blockcoach.substack.com/

(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is a very high-risk product, and there is a risk of going zero at any time. Please participate carefully and be responsible for yourself.)