How hard is it to outperform a fixed investment?
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Bitcoin rised and fell overnight. After yesterday's (3.23) Federal Reserve interest rate meeting failed to see further softening, some speculative funds left the market, and Bitcoin quickly fell back to a minimum of 26.6k after Fed FOMC meeting. After consolidating during the day, it went up again at night, all the way up to a maximum of 28.7k. After 0:00 it fell back again, oscillating up and down at 28k, and the amplitude gradually narrowed.
Let’s take a look back at the position increase points executed by the author since January:
1/10 17000 (failed) 1/18 21000 1/24 22500 1/31 22500 2/03 23000 2/08 22905 3/03 21500 3/03 21500 3/07 22191 3/10 20000 3/10 19000 (failed) 3/15 24000 3/22 28000
Increase times: 11 times. Number of times to add positions: 12 times. Average cost: 22645. Profit +23.6%.
If you increase your position at a fixed point every Tuesday at 8:00 p.m.:
1/03 16700 1/10 17300 1/17 21500 1/24 23000 1/31 23000 2/07 23000 2/14 22000 2/21 24500 2/28 23500 3/07 22300 3/14 25000 3/21 28000
Increase times: 12 times. Number of times to add positions: 12 times. Average cost: 22483 (-7% below firm offer). Profit +24.5%.
The implementation of the Bazijue in the firm operation focused on increasing the position after the fall, but was petrified when the market suddenly rose sharply in early January, and failed to adhere to the fixed investment twice. If we add the first two data of the second set of data to the head of the first set of data, it will look like this:
1/03 16700 1/10 17300 1/10 17000 (failed) 1/18 21000 1/24 22500 1/31 22500 2/03 23000 2/08 22905 3/03 21500 3/03 21500 3/07 22191 3/10 20000 3/10 19000 (failed) 3/15 24000 3/22 28000
Increase times: 14 times. Number of times to add positions: 12 times. Average cost: 20221 (-10.7% lower than firm offer, -10% lower than scheduled investment). Profit +38.5%.
It can be seen from the calculation of actual data that for the practical implementation of Bazijue, it is very important to insist on fixed investment. Increasing positions on dips is the icing on the cake. When there is an extreme market and the price is greatly reduced, take the opportunity to replenish some low-priced positions. But it can never be used as a substitute for insisting on a fixed investment.
The consolation is that in the few months at the end of last year, Bitcoin had a lot of time hovering at 16-17k, and some positions have been taken in at this water level, so there is no need to respond to the sudden surge in the market in January, and some pending orders failed Sorry for the deal.
Although Bazijue is just a simple eight-character formula, if you want to be able to use it with all your heart, and keep the cost to a minimum (at least lower than brainless fixed investment), you still have to work hard.
Extra: The full book of "History of Bitcoin" has been released on leanpub https://leanpub.com/history-of-bitcoin , and opensea https://opensea.io/assets/ethereum/0x495f947276749ce646f68ac8c248420045cb7b5e/105485037225361479373965289160919783096944397316814880893051094763402285810664
nostr: npub1dlwqsauewd56dekrnuxh8xukvg7pgeelwp39qah8ts5x28tmf7pqp5tcp3 twitter: https://twitter.com/liujiaolian discord: https://discord.gg/9pGpRgUYPp substack: https://blockcoach.substack.com/
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is a very high-risk product, and there is a risk of going zero at any time. Please participate carefully and be responsible for yourself.)